Predicting student academic success using entry test, language, and spiritual formation data with ensemble learning

Abstract

Student academic success is influenced by various factors, both academic and non-academic. This study aims to examine the correlation between key student attributes and final grade point average (GPA), as well as to develop a machine learning model to predict academic success. The correlation analysis involved academic variables such as admission scores (Mathematics, English, Indonesian, and academic aptitude test/TPA), English ability test (EAT), spiritual formation (SF), and first-year GPA (GPA_1). The results indicate that GPA_1 has the highest correlation with final GPA (0.63), followed by SF (0.44), while other variables exhibit lower correlations. To enhance prediction accuracy, a machine learning approach using three primary models was employed: Naïve Bayes, support vector machine (SVM), and an ensemble learning method based on a stacking classifier that combines SVM and Naïve Bayes. The evaluation used five train-test split ratios and performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Experimental results reveal that the SVM model achieves the highest accuracy at 88.40%, followed by the ensemble model combining SVM and Naïve Bayes (88.00%) and the Naïve Bayes model (87.10%). These findings confirm that the machine learning approaches, could effectively predict student academic success, providing a foundation for academic decision-making and educational intervention strategies.