Electric load forecasting using ARIMA model for time series data

Abstract

Any country's economic progress is heavily reliant on its power infrastructure, network, and availability, as energy has become an essential component of daily living in today's globe. Electricity's distinctive quality is that it cannot be stored in huge quantities, which explains why global demand for home and commercial electricity has grown at an astonishing rate. On the other hand, electricity costs have varied in recent years, and there is insufficient electricity output to meet global and local demand. The solution is a series of case studies designed to forecast future residential and commercial electricity demand so that power producers, transformers, distributors, and suppliers may efficiently plan and encourage energy savings for consumers. However, load prognosticasting has been one of the most difficult issues confronting the energy business since the inception of electricity. This study covers a new one–dimensional approach algorithm that is essential for the creation of a short–term load prognosticasting module for distribution system design and operation. It has numerous operations, including energy purchase, generation, and infrastructure construction. We have numerous time series forecasting methods of which autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) outperforms the others. The auto–regressive integrated moving average model, or ARIMA, outperforms all other techniques for load forecasting.